Tuesday, April 22, 2008


This is the best blog I've found if you are interested in wonkish number cruncing for the 2008 US elections.

538, of course is the number of votes by which Bush took Florida (and the White House), in 2000.

John McIntyre's view of tonight's Pennsylvania race:

--Obama wins: Race is totally over.
--Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.
--Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.
--Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.
--Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee

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