Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Glenmore swing analysis

Percentage swing from 2008:
Wildrose Alliance Party +28.67%
Liberal +1.07%
Progressive Conservative -24.71%
NDP -2.42%
Other -2.62%

Note the decline in the combined NDP/Liberal vote share. The Liberals and NDP combined pulled in 766 fewer voters in 2009 than in 2008 when, had they held their share, they would have lost 555 (turnout fraction was actually 98% of what it was last year, but the 2009 pool of eligible electors was just 88% of 2008 for a total vote count this year that was 87% of last year). A question for those who consider this combined vote representative of the "left" in Alberta is how can they be considered the opposition in waiting if the governing party can act arrogantly and incompetently and this vote goes DOWN. The combined PC/WRA vote share rose a full 4%, which doesn't really square with the notion that Calgarians feel the province needs some sort of shift to the left of the PCs.

Avalon Roberts' vote share has remained remarkably consistent. She got 35% for the Liberals in 2004, 33% in 2008, and 34% in 2009. She apparently gave up 2 points to the Wildrose Alliance in 2008 (the PC and Green vote shares remaining unchanged from 2004, and the NDP down a point for net 3 to the WRA) and arguably another point or more in 2009 if one assumes that 2 and half points from the NDP went Liberal but 1 and half moved on such that Roberts ended net up just 1.

The bottom line is that 110% of the benefit of the Tory tumble is going to the Wildrose Alliance.

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