Thursday, November 5, 2009

new Alberta poll? PC 34 WRA 28 Lib 20 NDP 9

and 8% interested in voting for a provincial Green Party that does not currently exist as far as Elections Alberta is concerned.

I put a question mark after "poll" because the National Post seems to have pulled the story and I don't see it on either the Calgary Herald's or on Environics' website. Maybe there is some sort of problem with it. Intuitively, though, the poll results are plausible because it would be consistent with the fact the ferocious growth in the Wildrose Alliance membership rolls tapered off only moderately after the cut-off date for leadership vote eligibility passed. Anecdotally, whereas some of my direct friends just joined the party in September, by the end of October some friends of those friends were joining.

It's close to the point whereby we could run the proverbial monkey in a riding like Calgary West and get him elected under the Wildrose banner; if the party is 4 points ahead of the PCs Calgary-wide, it is probably a comfortable gap in the western and southern 'burbs. If we have any truly safe ridings it will free up some resources for long shots.

In Edmonton, it is PC 33%, Liberal 27%, WAP 17% and NDP 13%. We probably need to get that 17% to 20% to win a seat, as that would probably also imply a drop in PC support to 30%, and from 10 points behind across the city there ought to be an idiosyncratic riding we could scoop in a three way split with the Liberals à la Glenmore; e.g. the to-be-created one that I expect to be centered on the South Commons area. Indeed, the capital city strategy I am championing is to go after the likely-to-be-split Edmonton Whitemud riding with a one-two punch, the first being to run a fiscal conservative in the open municipal Ward 9 next October (which overlaps almost exactly with the current Edmonton Whitemud provincial riding), and then run that sitting alderman (who, having won, will have proven him or herself to not be some unelectable nutbar as well as a hard worker and/or fundraiser) over some of the same territory provincially in 2012. Our Zone Director is a fan of the idea that 2012 candidates should be fished for in the pool of civic 2010 candidates who, even if they didn't win, proved that they can campaign and win some votes. I don't think I am giving away too much strategy here because, aside from the fact this is just me talking as opposed to a directing group of Wildrosers, what is the competition going to do? Run a lefty in Ward 9 in order to try and shut out fiscal conservatives from city council? They couldn't have run a better insurgency than Iveson in 2007 yet if you overlaid the 2007 polls over the new Ward 9 territory, Iveson would have lost to Nickel. I'm also talking about this in order to ask Edmonton area readers who want evidence-based policy and more professional government to keep in touch with me so that we can work together to realize a common objective.

In any case I am currently organizing in Whitemud for the Wildrose Alliance and looking to welcome all assistance. The PCs may try to put Hancock up against our best candidate in Whitemud's successor ridings and thereby try to shut us out with a cabinet name, but Hancock is probably stuck to where he lives, meaning we should be able to side-step him in favour of PC and Liberal competitors who are unknown and/or sporting a thin resume and/or unwilling to door knock for weeks and weeks. I can't see their candidate recruitment prospects as likely to be stellar in the current environment.

As implausible as it sounds to overcome the governing party in Edmonton, keep in mind that the NDP has just 13% in this poll and won just 18% within the city limits last year yet hold not one but two seats. I suspect that the party whose support is most unfavourably unconcentrated across the city is the Liberals.

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