it's all over but the cryin

I've referred to the psephologist fivethirtyeight before, but erroneously suggested that Bush won the 2000 election by 538 votes in Florida. In fact Bush won the certified count by 573. 538 instead refers to the number of votes in the US Electoral College.

Anyway, it now looks like Obama pretty much has the Oval Office in the bag. 538 has Obama's odds of winning up to 75%, and trending higher.
McCain faces a next to impossible task in light of the fact that more than 38% of Americans self-identify as Democrats, compared to less than 29% calling themselves Republicans. These party ID numbers mean that McCain would have to vastly outdraw independents AND hold on to his base while Obama loses his.

There just aren't enough Republicans in 2008.